Employees of an agricultural cooperative work in a farm in Yongfeng village, Zhejiang province, Feb 25, 2020. (XU YU / XINHUA)

BEIJING — China's agricultural products will continue to rise in quality this year as production stabilizes and supply is secured for important products such as grains and pigs, according to a report on Monday.

According to the China Agricultural Outlook (2020-2029), China's capacity to effectively supply major agricultural products and ensure their quality will continue to improve

The China Agricultural Outlook (2020-2029) released by the China Agricultural Outlook Conference 2020 summarized and reviewed the market situation of 18 major products in 2019, made projections on production, consumption, trade and prices in the next 10 years, and analyzed existing uncertainties.

According to the report, China's capacity to effectively supply major agricultural products and ensure their quality will continue to improve.

Crop pattern will continue to be optimized and the varieties of rice and wheat will improve. The total cropped area will be reduced accordingly, with the area of food grains at about 53.33 million hectares, according to the report.

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The yields of rice, wheat and corn in China in 2020 are expected to reach 209 million tonnes, 134 million tonnes and 267 million tonnes respectively.

The dairy industry will experience significant improvements in quality and efficiency, and aquaculture will rapidly develop, and the supply of green, high-quality and safe products will increase, according to the report.

Aagriculture upgrade to accelerate in next decade

The report also stated that the transformation and upgrading of agriculture in China will significantly accelerate in the next 10 years, and the level of agricultural modernization will steadily improve.

The focus of China's agriculture development will shift from increasing production to improving quality. The production and supply of green, ecological, high-quality and safe products will increase significantly, according to the report 

The focus of China's agriculture development will shift from increasing production to improving quality. The production and supply of green, ecological, high-quality and safe products will increase significantly, according to the report.

The structure of food grain varieties will continue to be optimized, with the planting area steadily declining. Unit yield increases will promote the steady growth of rice and wheat output, with an average annual growth rate of less than 1 percent in the next 10 years, said the report.

Soybean and milk output will grow at an average annual rate of 3 percent, and corn, fruit and poultry meat 2 percent to 3 percent, while pork, beef and mutton, sugar, vegetables and potatoes grow 1 percent to 2 percent.

Impact of COVID-19 on agricultural product market limited

The Chinese market of agricultural products is relatively stable and has been affected minimally by the COVID-19 pandemic, except for several varieties with high dependence on international trade, according to an analysis made by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

China's food supply is guaranteed. Its grain production has been stable, with the annual output standing at over 650 million tonnes for five consecutive years, and China is fully self-sufficient, said Xu Shiwei, a researcher from the institute.

According to the China Agricultural Outlook (2020-2029), China's total annual grain output reached a record high of 663.84 million tonnes in 2019.

The imports of rice and wheat only accounted for 1.6 percent and 2.7 percent of China's annual consumption, respectively, and the self-sufficiency rate reached over 95 percent

The imports of rice and wheat only accounted for 1.6 percent and 2.7 percent of China's annual consumption, respectively, and the self-sufficiency rate reached over 95 percent, said Xu, who is also the president of the China Agricultural Outlook Conference 2020.

As a result of continuous adjustment of planting structure, the planting area of corn in China decreased slightly in 2019, but the per-unit yield increased, and the total output continued to increase.

As China increased the planting area of soybeans, the output continued to grow. The supply of domestic edible soybeans expanded, and the dependence on imports gradually decreased, Xu said.

Fruits, vegetables and aquatic products have always been the main export products of China. The export of some products may be restricted, but this can make up for the demand of domestic consumers for international products, Xu said.

Affected by the African swine fever, China's pork production capacity declined significantly in 2019. However, with the implementation of a series of policies and measures, pig production in China continues to recover and is expected to be close to its usual level by the end of 2020, Xu said.

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At the same time, other meats, such as poultry and fish, can make up the gap of pork production to some extent, he said.

During the period of the severe epidemic, the price of some agricultural products, such as meat and vegetables, in some areas rose temporarily. But with the recovery of transportation and resumption of production of enterprises, the market price of agricultural products has basically returned to normal, Xu added. 

The China Agricultural Outlook Conference, organized by the Agricultural Information Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, has issued the China Agricultural Outlook report for six consecutive years. The report updates agricultural monitoring information, and guides agricultural production and market adjustment of agricultural products.