Preventing the worst-case scenario of the pandemic is possible if countries work together

COVID-19 has swept across the world with breathtaking speed like a tsunami. This invisible havoc-maker presents worldwide impact of a magnitude unseen since World War II.

Within a month of initial discovery in December 2019, the first wave of the virus tsunami hit China and its neighbors in East Asia. Within another month, the second wave slammed Europe and North America even harder. To contain further spread, many cities, provinces and even whole countries have been locked down, in a manner never seen, even during wartime.

Clearly the worst global health crisis in the post-WWII period, COVID-19 is also likely to trigger the worst economic crisis unless it can be swiftly checked.

There are still many unknowns about the virus’ spread and mutation trajectory. Uncertainty breeds fear, and fear is at the heart of the unfolding dual health-economic crisis.

Several scenarios are being projected about its future course. The best-case predicts the virus may die down toward the summer in the Global North, thus becoming seasonal. But the worst foresees it migrating to the Global South then swinging back to the Global North the next winter. If this happens, the virus may well gain strength through further infections and mutation, as the coping capacity of the Global South is generally weaker than that of its counterpart. If new drugs for vaccination and treatment are not made available by that time, its impact on the global economic and social fabric will be far worse, triggering a deeper global recession. The worst-case scenario is the outbreak will push the whole world into a depression like that in the 1930s.

All humanity is in this fight — no person or country is immune from this viral attack. Forced isolation is not a durable solution in the age of high connectivity and interdependence. Therefore, helping one another is not charity but an investment in our own futures. If we do not help others stem the virus, most likely it will return to haunt us.

Now is the time to turn the tide away from uncoordinated unilateral actions to those of global solidarity. All countries will benefit from learning from the trials and errors of others. This is evident from how countries in East Asia generally weathered the first wave of the COVID-19 tsunami better than others hit by the second wave. Their better preparedness is mainly built on lessons learned from earlier outbreaks of the 2002-03 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak and the 2015 Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) outbreak.

World leaders must get their act together. Sadly, there is a serious deficit in global governance to enable the collective actions necessary to help one another.

The G20 leaders’ videoconference on March 26 was a welcome first step to remedy this shortfall. Their sustained leadership will be crucial in bridging the deficit in global governance and facilitating a global action plan.

Here are some items which require urgent joint action and collaboration: First, expediting research and development of new and safe drug solutions for vaccination and treatment, safeguard/quarantine measures to minimize the risk of new waves of infection and guidelines for safe travel.

Second, pooling best practices and lessons learned for more effective prevention, mitigation and containment of the virus, providing technical assistance for early warning, prevention and response, and preparing international aid in advance of any health emergencies in the Global South unfolding in a manner going beyond their coping capacities.

Last, making available international financial stimulus packages in advance of any financial crisis unfolding in developing countries in the wake of health emergencies.

On top of these immediate actions, we also need to reflect deeply on the underlying messages that nature may have sent to us through the virus. The COVID-19 tsunami exposes excesses and neglect produced by our unsustainable lifestyles.

The erosion of biodiversity and wild animals’ habitat by human-induced activities and resulting climate change, may have forced the virus to begin a journey to find new hosts for survival. Overcrowded cities have provided fertile ground in which the virus has spread. The facilities for the elderly, sick and other vulnerable groups secluded from the rest of the society have been the hardest hit.

Fixing excesses and neglect arising from unsustainable ways of human life requires transformative thinking. We need a paradigm shift. Immediate-term solutions to cope with the current crisis need to be anchored in a long-term vision for the future which should be more human-centered, community-based and nature-friendly.

Undoubtedly the challenge to translate these longer-term implications into concrete actions is huge. But if we succeed in that endeavor, we can transform the coronavirus crisis into a blessing in disguise.

The author is former under secretary-general of the United Nations, the policy adviser to the secretary-general of the Boao Forum for Asia, and the chair of the International Advisory Board for the Future Consensus Institute (Yeosijae) in Republic of Korea. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily. 

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.