Southeast Asia (SEA) holds enormous strategic value in the competition between China and the United States, and both sides have striven mightily to woo countries in the region.
The US seeks to win over SEA countries to contain and encircle China, while China is committed to strengthening all-around ties with SEA countries in order to thwart the US’ containment strategy and expand the international frontiers for China’s economic development. China’s efforts in these areas are continuing to yield gratifying results.
During the Cold War, most SEA countries turned toward the US and its East Asian ally Japan, in terms of politics, economy and security. The purpose of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO), which was established in 1954 under the leadership of the US, was to counter communism’s “expansion” in SEA. The relationship between China and most SEA countries was fraught with difficulties; mutual suspicion and friction in politics, interests, and ideology flared up occasionally. In addition, economic and trade exchanges between China and SEA were minimal.
Sino-US relations improved in the early 1970s because of the need to join forces to deal with their common foe — the Soviet Union. They continued to grow until roughly the first decade of the 21st century. After the end of the Cold War, the US’ strategic focus was initially on Europe and the Middle East. The strategic value of SEA to the US had dropped significantly, and many SEA countries felt slighted by the US. To strengthen their international clout, 10 SEA countries established the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1967. At the same time, with the rise of China and its continuous reform and opening-up, China’s relations with SEA countries have become increasingly close, especially in terms of economics, trade, and culture.
In 2003, China, as ASEAN’s dialogue partner, joined the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia and established a strategic partnership for peace and prosperity with ASEAN. In 2021, China and ASEAN established the China-ASEAN Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Economically, China became ASEAN’s largest trading partner in 2009. In January 2010, the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area was fully established. In 2020, ASEAN became China’s largest trading partner for the first time. Since China proposed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), all 10 ASEAN countries have actively participated, resulting in even closer economic and trade ties between China and SEA. Many essential infrastructure projects have also been launched under the BRI framework, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, the China-Thailand High-speed Railway, the Malaysian East Coast Rail Link, and the Jakarta-Bandung High-speed Railway of Indonesia. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) signed in 2020 is particularly significant, having injected continuous and powerful impetus into the economic and trade exchanges between China and SEA countries.
In the early 2010s, the US suddenly came to the view that China’s rise posed an existential “threat” to its global hegemony and national interests, and began to adopt “containing China” as the central axis of its China policy. In 2011, President Barack Obama put forth the “pivot to Asia” strategy. On the surface, it was supposed to strengthen the US’ attention to Asia. The plan was undeniably intended to corral Asian countries to contain China, with SEA countries being the focus. Kurt M Campbell, a strategist who played a crucial role in designing the “pivot to Asia” strategy and is now the US deputy secretary of state, elaborated on this strategy in his 2016 book The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia, wherein he argued, “US policy across Southeast Asia is a crucial component of the Pivot.”
To crack down on China economically and trade-wise, Obama proposed building a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) that would exclude China. TPP aims to strengthen trade and economic ties among member countries by reducing tariffs and nontariff barriers, promoting investment liberalization, and protecting intellectual property rights. The agreement covers service trade, e-commerce, labor rights and environmental protection. However, this plan against China fell through in 2017 when then-president Donald Trump, who advocated such policies as “America First” and “Make America Great Again”, announced the US’ unilateral withdrawal from the TPP. However, President Biden has not given up the strategy to contain China economically, technologically and in trade. In May 2022, the US launched the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), again excluding China.
The launch started discussions of future negotiations on the following pillars: trade; supply chains; clean energy, decarbonization, and infrastructure; and tax and anti-corruption matters. The IPEF is designed to be flexible, meaning that IPEF partners are not required to join all four pillars. The most significant difference between IPEF and TPP is that, unlike TPP, the US under IPEF refuses to open its domestic market to participating countries, significantly reducing its appeal.
In any case, Trump and Biden inherited from Obama the US’ renewed emphasis on the geostrategic value of SEA. For a long time, because of historical reasons, the political and economic ties and influence between the US and SEA countries have been much greater than those between China and SEA countries. Many political and financial elites from the region have studied in the US or other Western countries. Western values have deeply influenced them, and they harbor varying degrees of suspicion and resistance toward China. To encourage SEA countries to stay away from China, the US continues to peddle the so-called “China threat” theory, making promises to provide “security guarantees” to SEA countries, viciously exploiting maritime disputes between China and some SEA countries, especially the Philippines, to provoke contradictions and conflicts, and using the “freedom of navigation in the South China Sea” notion as a tool to sow discord between China and SEA countries.
Undoubtedly, these actions by the US have negatively affected China’s relations with SEA countries to a degree. However, the US’ self-seeking approach, protectionism, unilateralism, and, more pointedly, extremely biased stance in the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the alleged genocide in Gaza have considerably damaged the political prestige and moral appeal of the US in SEA. At the same time, China’s pragmatic and reasonable stance in diplomacy, especially on maritime disputes, and its helpful role in promoting peace and safeguarding fairness and justice in international affairs have enhanced China’s prestige in SEA. China’s rapid economic growth, the rising standard of living of the Chinese people, the influx of Chinese tourists to SEA, China’s scientific and technological progress, cultural heritage, its ideas on a fair, inclusive and equitable international order, and the “brand recognition” and attractiveness of some Chinese companies and products have continuously increased China’s soft power in SEA. The gap in influence between China and the US in SEA is rapidly narrowing, and the overall development trend is becoming more and more favorable to China.
The US’ attempts to win over SEA countries and leverage them to contain China will not only fail but also reap its own consequences
This year, the findings in “The State of Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report”, compiled by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute of Singapore, provide solid evidence for this secular trend. The 1,994 respondents in this survey came from the academic, social and political elites of SEA countries. In that survey, “China continues to be seen as the most influential economic (59.5 percent) and political-strategic (43.9% percent) power in the region, outpacing the US by significant margins in both domains.” “China has edged past the US to become the prevailing choice (50.5 percent) if the region were forced to align itself in the ongoing US-China rivalry. The US dropped from 61.1 percent the previous year to 49.5 percent.”
China’s situation in SEA shows a stable and improving trajectory. As the political, economic and moral clout of the US in the region continues to decline, China’s influence in SEA will eventually surpass that of the US. However, we have also noticed that many SEA elites are still apprehensive about China and remain concerned that China’s rise could pose a threat to their country’s sovereignty, independence and interests. The US is likely to continue to unscrupulously interfere in SEA affairs and instigate certain countries to confront China. However, China’s foreign policy of good neighborliness and its economic and trade policy of mutual benefit and win-win will continue to reduce conflicts between China and SEA countries. In short, the US’ attempts to win over SEA countries and leverage them to contain China will not only fail but also reap its own consequences.
The author is a professor emeritus of sociology, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, and a consultant for the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macao Studies.
The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
