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Thursday, July 04, 2019, 00:23
Think hard about Hong Kong halting extradition law amendment legislation
By Zhou Bajun
Thursday, July 04, 2019, 00:23 By Zhou Bajun

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) opened a seminar on bottom-line thinking and major risk prevention and resolution for provincial government and CPC officials on Jan 21 in Beijing. Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CPC Central Committee and president of the People’s Republic of China, delivered a keynote speech at the opening ceremony of the seminar. He said: “We are faced with the tricky international situation, complex and sensitive surroundings of our country, and exceptionally difficult tasks of maintaining reform, development and stability. That is why we must keep our guard up all the time to prevent ‘black swans’ and ‘gray rhinos’ from happening. To do so we must have not only means to eliminate risks but also effective methods to resolve the challenges that come with the risks. We must be fully prepared to fend off any risk as well as troubleshoot any tricky situation strategically.”

In June, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region was gripped by political turmoil over the Fugitive Offender and Mutual Legal Assistance in Criminal Matters Legislation (Amendment) Bill 2019, commonly referred to as the extradition law amendment bill. It is no doubt a “black swan” and “gray rhino” event combined (A “black swan” phenomenon is something which is unpredictable and beyond what is normally expected and may have serious consequences. A “gray rhino” is something which is highly probable, will have a big impact, but is often neglected). The turn of events in which authorities concerned changed their assessment of the legislation from certain success to calling it off is a “gray rhino” incident. On the other hand, the anti-central government and anti-CPC forces’ attempt to seize the governing power of the HKSAR through the anti-extradition law amendment bill movement, supported by US-led Western powers, can be seen as a “black swan” phenomenon.

It should be noted that the SAR government did not expect the extradition law amendment bill to cause a “black swan” phenomenon or lead to a “gray rhino” event. That is why it was caught unprepared and consequently fell short in its efforts to explain the legislation to different sectors of Hong Kong society and eventually had to shelve it to allay public concerns.

The political turmoil spread, forcing the government to suspend the legislative process indefinitely. Needless to say it will be even more difficult to resume the local legislation for Article 23 of the Basic Law. In order to restore order and stability in Hong Kong, the SAR government must thoroughly reexamine the legislative process of the extradition law amendment bill and find out exactly what went wrong step by step.

It should be noted that the SAR government did not expect the extradition law amendment bill to cause a “black swan” phenomenon or lead to a “gray rhino” event. That is why it was caught unprepared and consequently fell short in its efforts to explain the legislation to different sectors of Hong Kong society and eventually had to shelve it to allay public concerns

There is no denying the SAR government lacked “effective methods to resolve the challenges that came with the risks”.

First, the government lost the power of discourse soon after the legislative process began, as the opposition hoodwinked hundreds of thousands of people into opposing the bill and joining the mass protest march on June 9 with a simple but sensational slogan of “No extradition to the mainland”. The government, on the other hand, did not have a simple and effective antidote to this hallucinating claim. In fact, even some government officials thought some local residents’ distrust of the judicial system on the mainland was reasonable. That is why they could not explain why the bill is legitimate and necessary in a matter-of-fact way. How can one convince others when they are not convinced themselves?

Second, while proactively working on winning the support of the business community and its political representatives, the government overlooked the concerns of grassroot communities. Even though the government has to get the business community and its political representatives behind the bill in order to win the approval of the Legislative Council, it apparently let many grassroot communities down by changing the draft bill twice without addressing the concerns of ordinary citizens’ worries. As a result, many people started questioning the fairness of extradition law amendments.

Third, the government failed to fully recognize the significance of the extradition law amendment legislation. The official narrative of the legislative intent of the bill emphasizes that it will help enhance Hong Kong’s rule of law by improving judicial cooperation with regional jurisdictions on the mainland. That is a correct assessment but apparently not acceptable to the opposition camp and its foreign allies. It is a well-known fact that Hong Kong’s judicial system was a copy of the UK version — which emphasizes judicial independence. The opposition camp and its foreign allies have always regarded it as a “restricted area” and simply would not let anyone touch it without their permission. The government believes the extradition law amendments will plug loopholes in the existing laws, whereas the opposition and its foreign allies see it as poking a hole in Hong Kong’s judicial independence. Some principal officials of the British Hong Kong government and lawmakers went so far as to claim that the legislative intent of the extradition law amendment bill was wrong because it would tear down the “last wall” between Hong Kong and the mainland and leave the SAR completely vulnerable. If the SAR government had considered all possible obstacles when it introduced the bill, it would have plans ready to squash all those half-truths and complete lies.

Fourth, the SAR government did not have the political resolve to head off the challenges when it needed it most. Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said in a televised speech on the evening of June 12 that the violent clashes at Admiralty during the day were intolerable in any civilized society under the rule of law. She said the authorities had to treat them as a riot. Regrettably the government did not take adequate action to match that assessment of the situation and get things under control effectively.

It’s never too late to stop repeating past mistakes. What the SAR government needs to do now is regrouping and figuring out a way to turn the crisis into an opportunity for a strategic comeback.

The author is a senior research fellow of China Everbright Holdings.

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