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Friday, January 03, 2020, 14:45
Croatia's president faces possible ouster in tight election
By Bloomberg
Friday, January 03, 2020, 14:45 By Bloomberg

Incumbent president and presidential candidate Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic greets supporters in her headquarter in Zagreb, Croatia, Dec 22, 2019. (DARKO VOJINOVIC / AP)

Croatia’s president is facing possible defeat in a vote where frustration over corruption and ambitions for deeper integration in the European Union may rebalance politics in the bloc’s newest member.

Ex-PM Zoran Milanovic, is betting that a center-left platform that rejects extremism in favor of inclusiveness will give him the edge in Sunday’s vote

Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic, a former NATO executive running on the carefully crafted image of a globe-trotting diplomat, must overcome a second-place finish in the first round and links to the scandal-plagued major of Zagreb to win. If she fails, the result could spell trouble for her ally Andrej Plenkovic, the prime minister, before general elections in the fall.

Kitarovic has reached out to voters who want Plenkovic to steer his ruling party toward the nationalism that has taken root in eastern EU states like Poland and Hungary. Her challenger, former Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic, is betting that a center-left platform that rejects extremism in favor of inclusiveness will give him the edge in Sunday’s vote.

ALSO READ: Croatia's presidential contest heads to Jan 5 runoff vote

“This is a battle between the two main parties ahead of a big showdown: the parliamentary election later this year,” said Zarko Puhovski, a political science professor at the University of Zagreb.

While the president’s role is largely ceremonial, the office commands the armed forces and decides over foreign-policy appointments with the premier. A new term for Kitarovic would strengthen Plenkovic’s position as he tries to stoke an economy that’s trailing other eastern European peers after years of stagnation.

Graft questions

But Milanovic, prime minister during Croatia’s double-dip recession from 2011 until 2015, bested the incumbent in a first round of voting on Dec 21. He has a seven-point lead in support with 48%, according to a poll published Dec 23 by Ipsos.

The president’s backing among conservatives soared in 2018, when she won international renown for images of her kissing Croatian soccer players during the country’s run to the World Cup final. The 51-year-old is now counting on backers of the third-placed first-round finisher, singer Miroslav Skoro, who ran on a nationalist platform.

But her popularity took a hit before Christmas, when she was filmed singing Happy Birthday and giving a cake to Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandic. He’s fighting graft accusations over the granting of preferential access to stalls at Zagreb’s Christmas market.

The scandal, in which Bandic denies wrongdoing, comes at a sensitive time for the Adriatic nation of 4.2 million, which joined the EU in 2013 and took over the EU’s six-month rotating presidency on Jan 1.

The bloc is scrutinizing Croatia’s readiness to adopt the euro and join Schengen, the EU’s passport-free travel zone. With corruption concerns delaying similar efforts in nearby Bulgaria, the prospect of the president supporting an official who’s spent much of his career fighting graft accusations may send the wrong signal.

READ MORE: EU leaders 'narrow top job candidates' after all-night summit

It’s also adding to headaches for Plenkovic, who’s trying to rein in a bulging bureaucracy, stem the outflow of workers to richer EU nations and improve corruption that’s seen as the bloc’s fifth-worst by Transparency International.

“It’s a close race, but the momentum seems to be with challenger Milanovic,” said Tvrtko Jakovina, professor of contemporary history at the University of Zagreb. “Despite the maximum mobilization of the ruling party, it looks like only part of Skoro supporters will back Kitarovic.”

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